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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.