Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
